Five calculators, no email required to use any of them. Inputs on the left, the answer on the right, and every assumption visible, including the ones that make the number worse. Where a figure is my estimate rather than published, it says so.
Run the numbers on any Dubai Islands off-plan property before you speak to anyone.
Same pattern in each. Figures below are worked on the AED 2M entry 1-bed, Shore Island (B).
DLD 4%, agency, trustee, mortgage arrangement and first-year service charge. The number that is always higher than the price you were quoted.
Every instalment against construction milestones, with post-handover options mapped out month by month.
One delivered project is not a lettings market, so this projects off comparable Deira waterfront rents, after service charge, agency and vacancy.
Non-resident LTV caps at 50–60%, stress-tested at +2% on the rate. Shows the deposit you actually need, not the headline.
Side by side with realistic occupancy, management fees and the Holiday Homes permit cost. Where the 11–13% claims fall apart.
Net yield on price
Ber's read: One project here has completed and been let, so this still projects off comparable Deira waterfront rents. On the entry 1-bed it comes out at 3.7% net, not the 11–13% being advertised, which is gross short-let at full occupancy. Larger units underwrite a little better. Short-let is upside, never the plan.
One residential project on Dubai Islands has been delivered and let. One building is not a lettings market, so this still projects off comparable Deira waterfront rents rather than pretending we have local evidence. Every figure below is editable.
True cost
Ber's read: Budget 6–7% on top of the price and you will not be caught out. The two people miss are the first-year service charge, payable at handover and the number developers are slowest to publish, and snagging. An inspection that finds nothing still costs you the inspection.
The number that is always higher than the price you were quoted. Agency commission is not here because on off-plan the developer pays it, not you.
Cash you actually need
Ber's read: The headline LTV is not the number to plan around. At 50% you are finding half the price plus the buying costs before a bank lends you anything. The stress test is the figure I actually underwrite. If the deal only clears at the offered rate, one repricing turns it into a problem.
Non-resident LTV caps at 50–60%, so plan for roughly half the price in cash plus the fees. Every deal is stress-tested at two points above the offered rate. If it only works at today's rate, it does not work.
Annualised return
Ber's read: Set growth to zero and look again. If the deal only works on capital growth you are not buying an asset, you are buying a forecast. The two events that would justify a real re-rating here, the dedicated bridges and the Blue Line, are dated 2027–29. I plan for the late end of both.
Capital growth is the assumption everyone gets wrong. The bridges and the metro are dated 2027–29; set growth low and check the deal still works, because that is the scenario I plan for.
Short-let advantage
Ber's read: Every short-let pitch quotes the top bar and none of the ones under it. On these assumptions long-let wins, and it wins without you running a hotel. Short-let is a reason to be pleased in a good year, not a reason to buy.
Where the 11–13% claims fall apart. Short-let gross looks enormous until the permit, the 18–22% management and a realistic occupancy go in. RIU has been operating here since 2020, so seasonal room rates are observable. Residential short-let occupancy is not, because almost nothing has been let.
USD figures are converted at AED 3.6725 to the dollar, a pegged rate, and are indicative only. One residential project on Dubai Islands has been delivered and let, which is not enough to call a market, so every yield here is a projection with its assumptions on screen. No email required, and nothing you type leaves your browser until you press send.
Most yield calculators on Dubai sites default to a low service charge, full occupancy and no vacancy. Mine defaults to my own estimates, AED 24/sq.ft on buildings that have not published theirs, six weeks empty in year one, and long-let rather than short-let. Change any of them you like, but that is where I start when I underwrite my own money.
Designated freehold zone. Full ownership rights, no local partner. No annual property tax, no capital gains tax, and the 4% DLD fee applies once.
Sole owners of a completed Dubai property qualify for a 2-year investor visa with no minimum value. The 10-year Golden Visa applies at AED 2M+ and covers spouse, children and parents.
Both long-term (Ejari) and short-term (Holiday Homes permit) are allowed. Short-let yields are being advertised at 11–13% gross and assume high occupancy. I underwrite the long-let and treat the rest as upside.
The Investment Pack applies these same assumptions to every live launch: total cost, payment plan schedule and projected long-let yield per project, including the ones I would not buy.